Your flood score is in court. What the public data says
A 1-to-10 flood score next to a home listing is now the subject of a lawsuit. A federal watchdog says most high-risk properties have no federal flood policy. And Pennsylvania just told home sellers they will have to disclose flood history. All of it comes down to one question a buyer can't easily answer: how much water risk comes with this address?
What happened in the last few weeks
Florida sued First Street. On Oct. 23, Florida's attorney general sued First Street Technology in Polk County, alleging that its Risk Factor scores exaggerate flood danger, are hard to challenge and may harm sellers. Nebraska's attorney general filed a similar case in August. These are allegations, and no court has ruled on them. First Street says its model captures heavy rainfall and future conditions that FEMA maps may miss. (Insurance Nerds has the details.)
Why a score can matter so much. The complaint cites a Zillow analysis of homes listed in June 2024: 52% of homes with extreme flood scores sold, against 71% with low scores. That is an association. It does not show the scores caused the gap.
Federal investigators looked at coverage. The Government Accountability Office found that as of April 2026, 86% of high-risk properties had no National Flood Insurance Program policy, and that about 13 million high-risk properties sit outside FEMA's special flood hazard areas. (Beinsure and Insurance Business have the report's findings.) That 13 million was calculated using First Street's estimates, the same kind of data Florida is now challenging.
Pennsylvania changed its disclosure rules. Gov. Josh Shapiro signed House Bill 1704. Starting in July 2028, sellers must say whether the property has had flood damage, whether it is in a FEMA 100- or 500-year flood zone, whether flood insurance is required or has been carried, whether they received government aid for flood damage, and whether they filed a flood claim. About 1% of Pennsylvania households carry flood insurance, according to the state. (Insurance Journal, Pennsylvania Insurance Department.)
A score and a map answer different questions
A flood score is a model's estimate. Different models can disagree: a 2024 study in Los Angeles County found only 24% agreement between First Street and another model on the 1%-annual-chance flood extent. That result is specific to Los Angeles, and it doesn't show which model is right.
A FEMA map is a regulatory line. It helps decide whether a federally backed mortgage requires flood insurance. It was not drawn to tell you whether a particular house will take on water, and the GAO notes some of the maps are out of date. FEMA's insurance program says nearly one-third of its 2014 to 2024 claims came from outside high-risk areas.
The third source gets less attention: what has actually been paid. Claims are records, not a forecast, and they show where water has already cost people money.
What we found when we compared the map with the claims
FloodFireCheck has neighborhood pages built from FEMA's flood map and its National Flood Insurance Program claims. Across the 548 neighborhood pages with a digital FEMA map, 43 have under 10% of their area in FEMA's high-risk zones and also have at least 100 claims on record. In 27 of them the high-risk share is under 5%.
| Neighborhood | Area in high-risk zones | Claims on record | Rated outside high-risk zones |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garden Oaks, Houston | 7.8% | 1,068 | 846 |
| Golden Acres, Pasadena | 7.3% | 1,865 | 1,391 |
| Greinwich Village, Lake Charles | 5.5% | 871 | 576 |
| Riverside Terrace, Houston | 8.5% | 808 | 611 |
| Sunnyside, Houston | 2.2% | 398 | 317 |
| Carrollton, New Orleans | 9.7% | 4,417 | 1,702 |
| Esplanade Ridge, New Orleans | 2.5% | 1,599 | 511 |
The last column is the part that surprises people. Each claim records the flood zone the policy was rated in at the time. In Garden Oaks, Houston, 846 of the 1,068 claims were rated in zones X, B or C, FEMA's moderate and minimal categories.
One thing to read carefully. New Orleans makes up 8 of the 43, and most claims in its neighborhoods trace to one storm, Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Carrollton's 4,417 claims include 2,616 from Katrina. Other neighborhoods have kept filing more recently: Greinwich Village in Lake Charles has 501 claims since 2015, and Garden Oaks has 431.
What this does not show
- It doesn't say a score is right or wrong. We don't publish flood scores, and nothing here takes a side in the Florida case.
- It doesn't say anywhere is safe or unsafe. Past claims don't predict future flooding. A neighborhood with few claims may simply have had few policies.
- It isn't address-level. Claims are public only by census block group, and flood maps have been redrawn since many of these claims were filed.
What to do before you buy
- Look up the exact address on FEMA's map, not just the neighborhood.
- Ask the seller about past flooding and flood claims, in writing. Disclosure rules vary by state, and Pennsylvania's new law doesn't start until July 2028.
- Get a flood insurance quote before you close. Standard homeowners policies generally don't cover flood damage.
- If you see a score, treat it as one input. Check what it measures, over how many years, and what it assumes.
You can see the flood zone for any U.S. address below, or browse neighborhood pages by city.
This site does not label any place safe or unsafe. Past claims do not predict future flooding. Always check the exact address.